ECONOMIC DATA OF THE DAY

Time	CY	Indicator	Forecast	Previous
12:30	JPY	All Industry Activity Index MoM	0.90%	-1.00%
20:30	CAD	CPI Core MoM	0.00%	0.00%
20:30	CAD	CPI Core YoY	2.10%	2.10%

(Source: FabTrader)

SPEECHES

• New York Fed’s William Dudley said that he emphasis more on the labor market than GDP data as he thinks that statisticians are better at counting jobs than people and second because the labor is part of Fed’s dual mandate.

OVERNIGHT NEWS

• US
• August Philly Fed Manufacturing Index beats estimates as well and came in at 2.0%%, above the consensus estimates of 1.4% and forecast previous reading of -2.9%.
• Unemployment claims data also came in lower at 262k which is lower than the forecast at 269k and previous reading of 266k.
• UK
• U.K retails sales unexpectedly beats analysts forecasts after Brexit. Retail sales came in at 1.4% against the forecast of 0.1%. The drop in pound in the last month had encouraged tourists to snap up watches and jewellery and boost retail sales. Volume of goods sold in stores and online also jumped 1.4% after dropping 0.9% in June. Pound dollar also jumped surged on data release.
• Europe       
• The ECB minutes for July that was released yesterday indicated that the governing council may well act according to analysts’ expectations and keep its ultra-loose monetary policy in place for longer when it meets on Sept 8.
• It was quoted  “The so-called Brexit vote was expected to affect primarily the UK economy, but the unpredictability of the impact on trade meant the UK’s decision to break ties with the EU “could affect the global economy in deeper and less predictable ways than through the direct trade channel”.
• Concerns on the impact of Brexit could extend central bank’s effort of the 80 billion a month quantitative easing program beyond the spring 2017 deadline.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE (INDICATIVE RATES)

Currency	Last	% Change	Overnight Range
DXY	94.25	-0.35%	94.077 – 94.652
EURUSD	1.1347	0.34%	1.13 – 1.1366
USDJPY	100.12	0.07%	99.74 - 100.5
AUDUSD	0.7678	-0.26%	0.7661 – 0.7723
GBPUSD	1.3162	0.71%	1.3042 - 1.3173

(Source: FabTrader)

Commodities (INDICATIVE RATES)

Currency	Price USD	% Change	Overnight Range
Gold	1350.02	0.01%	1346.19 - 1356.18
Silver	19.70	0.01%	19.6285 - 19.9385
Oil (BRENT)	50.89	2.21%	49.52 - 50.95
Oil (WTI)	48.32	3.18%	46.63 - 48.38

(Source: Bloomberg and Saxo)

COMMODITIES

Precious Metals: Gold and silver still hovers around its key level at 1350 and 20 dollar. Nothing much.

Oil: Oil continues to surge higher with Brent and WTI breaking the 50 and 48 level. Russia has also joined the talks that they are open to discuss a production freeze with Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members.

FOREX NEWS

• USD traded soft throughout the day yesterday, with the view that the FOMC minutes shows a Fed divided.
• USDJPY trades around the 100 level having traded to a  low of 99.65 yesterday in the Asian session. There has been a notable increase in the commentary out of Japanese officials about the strength in the yen and their ability to act against this. This has created some skittish price action as the market is fearful of intervention. With no significant data today expect a quiet session into the weekend.  
• GBP broke higher through the resistance levels yesterday following very strong retail sales data. The short positioning and negative sentiment in GBP may mean more sterling strength in the near term as positioning is reduced. 
• EUR remains below the key resistance level of 1.14, but trades bid in line with general USD weakness. 
• In Emerging Markets, USD weakness was less pronounced than in G10 as a number of currencies trade on key support levels and need a fresh catalyst to break these (SGD, CNH, INR). Others, after a prolonged bout of strength saw large sells offs earlier in the weak and remained quiet yesterday failing to participate in the general USD weakness (KRW, TWD). 

Asia stocks fall on Fed officials' hawkish views, oil near eight-week high

Asian stocks retreated on Friday and the dollar edged up from a near eight-week low after some Federal Reserve officials reiterated the case for raising interest rates in coming months.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS pulled back 0.6 percent.

That would put it on track to end the week, during which it hit a 1-year high, 0.3 percent lower.

Japan's Nikkei .N225 erased earlier gains to trade 0.1 percent lower, set for a weekly loss of 2.6 percent.

South Korea's Kospi .KS11 also surrendered earlier increases to slip 0.1 percent, on track for a 0.1 percent weekly gain. Australian shares added 0.2 percent, heading for a 0.2 percent decline for the week.

China's CSI 300 index .CSI300 and the Shanghai Composite .SSEC slid 0.2 percent, but were still up 1.9 percent and 1.6 percent for the week, respectively.

U.S. stocks eked out gains on Thursday following upbeat earnings and forecasts from Wal-Mart (WMT.N) and as higher oil lifted energy shares. [.N]

The dollar recovered after more hawkish comments from New York Fed President William Dudley and San Francisco Fed President John Williams.

It had fallen to the lowest level since June 24 overnight in response to the Fed's July meeting minutes this week saying more data is needed before interest rates can rise.

"There were a few gyrations around expectations for when the Fed will next raise interest rates, with the minutes from the July Fed meeting presenting a relatively dovish picture but regional Fed presidents Williams and Dudley pushing back against market expectations that look to be too dovish," Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital in Sydney, wrote in a note.

Dudley, who said earlier this week that the central bank could possibly hike rates in September, reinforced his hawkish message on Thursday.

Williams also signaled support for an interest rate hike in the coming months, warning that waiting too long could see the economy overheat. Williams does not have a vote on Fed policy this year, but his views are seen as influential due to his longstanding relationship with Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six peers, rose 0.2 percent to 94.367. It is down 1.4 percent for the week.

The U.S. currency gained 0.4 percent to 100.23 yen JPY=. It is still on track to lose 1.1 percent on the week.
Read More at www.reuters.com