ECONOMIC DATA OF THE DAY

Time	CY	Indicator	Forecast	Previous
09.30am	AUD	RBA July Meeting Minutes	N/A	N/A
04.30pm	GBP	CPI YoY	0.4%	0.3%

(Source: FabTrader)

OVERNIGHT NEWS

• TURKEY: 
• Moody's warned it could cut Turkey to junk as President Erdogan expanded his post-coup purge to 20,000 officials.
• The Central Bank is meeting today. Market expectation is a 25 bps rate cut from 9.00% to 8.75%. The coup could push the central bank to cut even more to stabilize the markets
• ECB: 
• The ECB published its corporate-bond holdings for the first time, showing that it bought debt issued by more than 150 companies under a five-week-old stimulus program. Issuers included Danone and Glencore. Deutsche Lufthansa and Telecom Italia notes graded junk by at least one rating company were also acquired.
• NEW ZEALAND:
• RBNZ may impose nationwide lending restrictions on property investors. No more than 5% of bank lending to residential property investors across the nation would be permitted with a loan-to-value ratio of greater than 60%, a consultation paper showed.
• UK:
• Theresa May will make her first trip to the continent this week since becoming Britain’s PM, meeting with Angela Merkel on Wednesday and Francois Hollande on Thursday. With May giving mixed signals as to when Brexit negotiations will begin, some EU members are exploring whether they can force the U.K. out 

FOREIGN EXCHANGE (INDICATIVE RATES)

Currency	Last	% Change	Overnight Range
DXY	96.56	0.00%	96.466 – 96.713
EURUSD	1.107	0.09%	1.1038 – 1.1084
USDJPY	106.14	0.45%	105.27 - 106.26
AUDUSD	0.7566	-0.18%	0.7575 – 0.7607
GBPUSD	1.3264	0.05%	1.3213 - 1.3315

(Source: FabTrader)

Commodities (INDICATIVE RATES)

Currency	Price USD	% Change	Overnight Range
Gold	1329.00	0.28%	1323.55 - 1335.61
Silver	20.00	0.66%	19.7185 - 20.2225
Oil (BRENT)	46.96	1.61%	46.5 - 49.22
Oil (WTI)	45.17	1.48%	44.86 - 46.08

(Source: Bloomberg and Saxo)

COMMODITIES

Precious Metals: Precious metals are getting off to a weak start to the new week of trading. Gold has dipped below $1,330 per troy ounce and in euro terms is trading at around €1,200 per troy ounce. Silver has also fallen, dropping below the $20 per troy ounce mark. Following good US economic data, stock markets are performing well and the probability of a US Federal Reserve rate hike this year has risen to 44%, putting pressure on precious metals serving as safe heaven.

Oil: Oil Futures slid 1.6% in New York. Oil declined following a failed coup in Turkey as shipments continued through the vital conduit from Russia and Iraq to the Mediterranean Sea.

FOREX NEWS

• The selloff in NZDUSD continues after RBNZ said they will introduce new measures for property lending (see above). We are now trading at the main support around 0.7000. This move helped the dramatic squeeze higher in AUDNZD all the way up to the 200d MA at 1.0798. We saw many buyers of AUDNZD 2 weeks ago until major stops occurred and the pair broke 1.0400. It feels that the market is now being caught short AUDNZD on the way up.
• USDJPY continues to rally and the news that the Japanese company Softbank bought the UK chip-manufacturer ARM GBP 23.4 Bn was confirmed. The next big event now for USDJPY is BOJ on July 29th and they will need to deliver or USDJPY is back at 100
• USDTRY is back higher after Moody’s express risks of cuts for the country and is settling close to the highs just under 3.0000. Expect some volatility today with the Central Bank having their meeting today

Oil prices fall on oversupply concerns despite output cuts

Oil prices eased on Tuesday as concerns over a crude and refined fuel glut outweighed an expected cut in U.S. shale production and a probable further draw in U.S. crude inventories.

Crude prices fell more than 1 percent in the previous session after worries about potential supply disruptions stemming from an attempted coup in Turkey proved unfounded.

"Prices are a bit softer in the Asian trading period - traders and investors are torn which way prices are going to break. It's a knife edge between optimism and pessimism," said Ben Le Brun, market analyst at Sydney's OptionsExpress.

The market is waiting for U.S. crude stocks data on Tuesday and Wednesday to help give direction to prices, he said.

Brent crude slipped 13 cents to $46.83 a barrel as of 0349 GMT after finishing the previous session down 65 cents, or 1.4 percent.

U.S. crude, known as West Texas Intermediate (WTI), fell 14 cents to $45.10 a barrel after settling 71 cents, or about 1.6 percent, lower in the previous session.

Fuel inventories in the United States, Europe and Asia are brimming despite this being the peak summer driving season, leading traders to store diesel on tankers at sea amid wilting demand growth. With landed oil product storage nearly full as well, there is little support for any sustained recovery in crude prices even as output tapers.

U.S. shale oil production is expected to fall in August for a tenth straight month, by 99,000 barrels per day to 4.55 million bpd, according to a U.S. drilling productivity report on Monday.

Further weighing on supply, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories likely fell by 2.2 million barrels last week, a Reuters poll of analysts showed on Monday. [API/S] [EIA/S]

That would be the ninth consecutive week stocks have fallen.

The poll was taken ahead of weekly oil stocks reports due on Tuesday from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and on Wednesday from the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Giving some support to prices, China's crude oil imports - which slowed partly due to seasonal refinery maintenance in May and June - could rebound in the second half of the year as refineries there further diversify sources of supply, shipbroker Banchero Costa (Bancosta) said in a report on Tuesday.

China's crude imports grew 14.2 percent over January-June, with most of the gains coming from huge increases in supply from Russia, Oman, Iraq and Brazil, said Ralph Leszczynski, head of research at Bancosta.
Read More at www.reuters.com